Critical slowing down for predicting controller induced loss of control in quadrotors

Published July 29, 2026 · Category: Robotics

Overview

arXiv:2607.25370v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a novel forecasting scheme to anticipate controller induced loss of control (LOC) in quadrotors and evaluate it on real LOC flight data from four different quadrotors. For this, early warning signals of LOC are derived using critical slowing down (CSD), a generic phenomenon shown to precede critical transitions across various complex ecological and biological systems. As such, our early warning indicators are generic in the sense that no system models are needed to facilitate forecasts of LOC. The approach is evaluated on real quadrotor flight data wherein LOC occurs due to unstable controller behavior arising from input-output delays. Our approach achieves a time-to-LOC forecast of up to 0.9 seconds before LOC occurs, outperforming state-of-the-art recurrent neural network quadrotor LOC forecasters in terms of detection accuracy and LOC data reliance. In particular, we leverage insights from CSD to accurately predict LOC without using data of the LOC event itself. Going further, we apply our forecasters without any re-parameterization to anticipate a different LOC scenario, quadrotor flyways, that occur on other quadrotors flying both indoors and outdoors. Despite these differences, our approach successfully detects LOC, demonstrating that it can generalize across controller architectures, quadrotors, and LOC scenarios.

Source

Originally published at arxiv.org.

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