Reliability-Aware Future Conditioning for Temporally Robust Robot Manipulation
arXiv:2610.11956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A generated video of a task the robot is about to perform is useful guidance only if it depicts the phase the robot is actually in. We show that temporal misalignment can turn a task-consistent generated future into actively harmful guidance. On CALVIN, a five-frame early shift nearly erases the benefit of generated futures, reducing success from 81.3% to 54.8% against 54.0% without futures; imposed timing shifts reduce it even further to 34.2%, 1
Overview
arXiv:2610.11956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A generated video of a task the robot is about to perform is useful guidance only if it depicts the phase the robot is actually in. We show that temporal misalignment can turn a task-consistent generated future into actively harmful guidance. On CALVIN, a five-frame early shift nearly erases the benefit of generated futures, reducing success from 81.3% to 54.8% against 54.0% without futures; imposed timing shifts reduce it even further to 34.2%, 19.8 points below the future-free policy. We introduce Reliability-Aware Future Conditioning (RAFC), which treats this as a control problem rather than a generation problem. At every step, RAFC estimates how far to trust the received clip and which nearby temporal hypothesis to prefer, falling back toward a static branch when neither fits, and it learns both from task reward alone without shift labels or alignment supervision. RAFC sits on top of Future-Experience Conditioning (FEC), which builds the clip once from task grounding, a robot-free digital-twin rollout, and mask-free video diffusion. Under deliberately off-grid phase shifts and rate mismatch, RAFC substantially improves success under temporal mismatch. Candidate ensembling accounts for most of the recovery near alignment, while learned reliability adds a further 7.0 percentage points over uniform averaging of the identical candidate bank under off-grid shifts. The gain holds on the evaluated task sets and survives on a Franka under natural timing mismatch nobody imposed, where aggregate success rises from 26.7% to 56.7%. All resources will be made publicly available. https://future-condition.github.io/.
Source
Originally published at arxiv.org.
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Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11956
